Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 13 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
374 picks · 779 bans
Void Spirit
346 picks · 464 bans
Mars
297 picks · 522 bans
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 226 bans
Death Prophet
265 picks · 409 bans
Rubick
243 picks · 145 bans
Keeper of the Light
232 picks · 485 bans
Wraith King
227 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 74%
Hero pool strength65% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total60% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
PuckChamp 40%Hellbear Smashers 60%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 32:40.
Game 2prediction correct35:22
PuckChamp 40%Hellbear Smashers 60%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 34:59.
Game 3prediction correct37:41
PuckChamp 40%Hellbear Smashers 60%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 1:03:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 60%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3