?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 4 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 4 games
50%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 5 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
September · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 777 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
346 picks · 461 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 519 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 226 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
264 picks · 407 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
242 picks · 145 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
232 picks · 485 bans
55%
Wraith King
Wraith King
227 picks · 330 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:25
Phoenix Gaming 46%Sparking Arrow Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 25:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinshiro
46% · 52 games54% · 17 games
InvokerDstones
Invoker
Weaver
WeaverMolasses
51% · 36 games58% · 38 games
BeastmasterSon GoKu
Beastmaster
Lina
LinaXwy
50% · 12 games49% · 55 games
RubickSeptember
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
47% · 69 games50% · 68 games
Death ProphetXCJ
Death Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorzzq
48% · 9 games
Game 2prediction missed29:13
Phoenix Gaming 44%Sparking Arrow Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
33% · 35 games49% · 25 games
KunkkaDstones
Kunkka
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXwy
64% · 7 games52% · 74 games
TidehunterSon GoKu
Tidehunter
Lycan
LycanMolasses
47% · 35 games61% · 48 games
MiranaSeptember
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
52% · 75 games61% · 60 games
OracleXCJ
Oracle
Grimstroke
Grimstrokezzq
38% · 55 games
Game 3prediction missed35:23
Phoenix Gaming 46%Sparking Arrow Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
37% · 42 games46% · 19 games
Outworld DestroyerDstones
Outworld Destroyer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXwy
56% · 26 games46% · 116 games
PuckSon GoKu
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMolasses
62% · 50 games72% · 11 games
VenomancerXCJ
Venomancer
Lion
LionpLAnet
57% · 45 games45% · 33 games
TuskSeptember
Tusk
Abaddon
Abaddonzzq
47% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSparking Arrow Gaming · 57%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3