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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragonloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
0%

Xtreme Gaming

Puck
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 1 game
100%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Storm · 1 game
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Storm · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 774 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
346 picks · 459 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 518 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 226 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
263 picks · 406 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
242 picks · 145 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
232 picks · 485 bans
55%
Wraith King
Wraith King
227 picks · 328 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:31
Dragon 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Dragon — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierghost
75% · 4 games25% · 4 games
LinaStorm
Lina
Game 2prediction correct23:12
Dragon 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
Tidehunterghost
52% · 17 games48% · 17 games
Death ProphetStorm
Death Prophet
Game 3prediction missed5:36
Dragon 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Dragon — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 20:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
Axeghost
little datalittle data
Storm SpiritStorm
Storm Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 57%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3