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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Miposhka · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
50%

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
371 picks · 768 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
345 picks · 456 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 516 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 223 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
262 picks · 401 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
241 picks · 145 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
231 picks · 484 bans
55%
Wraith King
Wraith King
227 picks · 324 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:31
Team Spirit 41%Brame 59%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:12.
Game 2prediction missed35:17
Team Spirit 41%Brame 59%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 59%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2