?
arrow_backBack to match
Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwaveloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 16 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 16 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 14 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
77%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 11 games
64%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
73%

Hellbear Smashers

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 13 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
83%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
64%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
371 picks · 767 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
344 picks · 456 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 516 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
267 picks · 223 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
262 picks · 398 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
240 picks · 143 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
231 picks · 483 bans
55%
Wraith King
Wraith King
227 picks · 323 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 74%
Hero pool strength54% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total60% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:24
Creepwave 44%Hellbear Smashers 56%
The model gave 56% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerCrystallis
56% · 17 games35% · 23 games
AlchemistAce
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAdzantick
52% · 70 games51% · 25 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Razor
RazorTobi
57% · 3 games53% · 54 games
BeastmasterMISERY
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaFishman
57% · 31 game29% · 3 games
Treant ProtectortOfu
Treant Protector
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMiLAN
49% · 65 games48% · 81 game
RubickGilgir
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed27:16
Creepwave 44%Hellbear Smashers 56%
The model gave 56% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Creepwave in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
43% · 57 games45% · 36 games
MedusaAce
Medusa
Enigma
EnigmaMiLAN
50% · 46 games50% · 28 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaAdzantick
50% · 25 games64% · 63 games
PhoenixGilgir
Phoenix
Tidehunter
TidehunterTobi
52% · 65 games42% · 46 games
PangolierMISERY
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressFishman
50% · 36 games52% · 56 games
BeastmastertOfu
Beastmaster
Game 3prediction correct10:28
Creepwave 45%Hellbear Smashers 55%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaAdzantick
59% · 9 gameslittle data
Naga SirenAce
Naga Siren
Enigma
EnigmaTobi
47% · 18 games46% · 23 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
38% · 13 games49% · 36 games
TidehunterMISERY
Tidehunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiLAN
52% · 26 gameslittle data
Treant ProtectortOfu
Treant Protector
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
54% · 16 games57% · 23 games
LionGilgir
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 60%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3