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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
High Coast Esportswin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

High Coast Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
75%

VP.Prodigy

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
dSa · 6 games
83%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
371 picks · 765 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
344 picks · 456 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 516 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
267 picks · 223 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
262 picks · 396 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
240 picks · 143 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
231 picks · 481 bans
55%
Wraith King
Wraith King
227 picks · 323 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 23%
Hero pool strength51% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:6
High Coast Esports 45%VP.Prodigy 55%
The model gave 55% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 29:53.
Game 2prediction missed13:32
High Coast Esports 45%VP.Prodigy 55%
The model gave 55% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 36:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 55%
Series resultHigh Coast Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2