Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
Marssignature
ATF · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 16 games
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
371 picks · 761 bans
Void Spirit
343 picks · 455 bans
Mars
293 picks · 516 bans
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
259 picks · 396 bans
Rubick
240 picks · 142 bans
Keeper of the Light
230 picks · 480 bans
Wraith King
225 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 74%
Hero pool strength60% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
HellRaisers 40%Creepwave 60%
The model gave 60% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 42:20.
Game 2prediction correct24:46
HellRaisers 40%Creepwave 60%
The model gave 60% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 58:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 60%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2