FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
September · 5 games
Earth Spirit
September · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Tusk
September · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
370 picks · 760 bans
Void Spirit
342 picks · 454 bans
Mars
293 picks · 514 bans
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
259 picks · 395 bans
Rubick
240 picks · 142 bans
Keeper of the Light
230 picks · 480 bans
Wraith King
225 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:32
CDEC Gaming 58%Sparking Arrow Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 28:22.
Game 2prediction missed8:40
CDEC Gaming 58%Sparking Arrow Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 37:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 58%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2