EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RUSSIANDRILLloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
RUSSIANDRILL
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
370 picks · 759 bans
Void Spirit
342 picks · 454 bans
Mars
293 picks · 514 bans
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
259 picks · 393 bans
Rubick
240 picks · 141 bans
Keeper of the Light
230 picks · 480 bans
Wraith King
225 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% RUSSIANDRILL
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:16
Tundra Esports 46%RUSSIANDRILL 54%
The model gave 54% on RUSSIANDRILL — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:23.
Game 2prediction missed23:11
Tundra Esports 46%RUSSIANDRILL 54%
The model gave 54% on RUSSIANDRILL — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteRUSSIANDRILL · 54%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2