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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 23 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 23 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 19 games
42%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 18 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 18 games
28%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 17 games
41%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 17 games
29%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 12 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
18%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 10 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
527 picks · 862 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 378 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 636 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 587 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 801 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 559 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
344 picks · 571 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 483 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:29
Yakult Brothers 52%Team Nemesis 48%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendflyfly
51% · 90 games50% · 37 games
Razor23savage
Razor
Leshrac
LeshracMoon
52% · 90 games44% · 242 games
BeastmasterMac
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordYang
52% · 83 games49% · 79 games
KunkkaJabz
Kunkka
Jakiro
JakiroBoBoKa
49% · 311 games47% · 174 games
WindrangerQ
Windranger
Largo
Largo天命
little data60% · 42 games
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed26:16
Yakult Brothers 49%Team Nemesis 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorflyfly
43% · 41 game57% · 277 games
Muerta23savage
Muerta
Puck
PuckMoon
49% · 244 games49% · 37 games
Earth SpiritMac
Earth Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerYang
52% · 246 games56% · 226 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
47% · 367 games44% · 221 game
WindrangerQ
Windranger
Warlock
Warlock天命
49% · 256 games50% · 393 games
RingmasterJaunuel
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed33:44
Yakult Brothers 52%Team Nemesis 48%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 55:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerflyfly
55% · 60 games43% · 45 games
Alchemist23savage
Alchemist
Puck
PuckMoon
52% · 79 games49% · 115 games
HuskarMac
Huskar
Undying
UndyingYang
59% · 23 games51% · 37 games
RazorJabz
Razor
Jakiro
JakiroBoBoKa
46% · 141 game50% · 110 games
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
Crystal Maiden
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition天命
43% · 44 games55% · 40 games
Spirit BreakerQ
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 53%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3