Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 9 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 8 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
KheZu · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 7 games
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
369 picks · 759 bans
Void Spirit
342 picks · 454 bans
Mars
292 picks · 514 bans
Earth Spirit
265 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
257 picks · 392 bans
Rubick
239 picks · 141 bans
Keeper of the Light
228 picks · 479 bans
Wraith King
224 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:19
ViKin.gg 40%Hellbear Smashers 60%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordShad
MedusaAce
PuckBOOM
Death ProphetStormstormer
AxeKheZu
TidehunterMISERY
RubickAramis
MiranaGilgir
TuskSeleri
Spirit BreakertOfu
Game 2prediction missed42:14
ViKin.gg 44%Hellbear Smashers 56%
The model gave 56% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistShad
Wraith KingAce
Ember SpiritBOOM
Nature's ProphetMISERY
Death ProphetKheZu
ZeusStormstormer
Earth SpiritAramis
Keeper of the LighttOfu
OracleSeleri
TuskGilgir
Game 3prediction missed34:20
ViKin.gg 41%Hellbear Smashers 59%
The model gave 59% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterShad
Monkey KingAce
MarsBOOM
LeshracStormstormer
AlchemistKheZu
VenomancerMISERY
Dark WillowAramis
Keeper of the LighttOfu
EnchantressSeleri
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 64%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3