Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HellRaisersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
366 picks · 759 bans
Void Spirit
342 picks · 454 bans
Mars
290 picks · 514 bans
Earth Spirit
265 picks · 222 bans
Death Prophet
255 picks · 391 bans
Rubick
239 picks · 141 bans
Keeper of the Light
227 picks · 477 bans
Wraith King
223 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:31
PuckChamp 59%HellRaisers 41%
The model gave 59% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 37:16.
Game 2prediction missed47:25
PuckChamp 59%HellRaisers 41%
The model gave 59% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:04.
Game 3prediction missed17:28
PuckChamp 59%HellRaisers 41%
The model gave 59% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 34:25.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 59%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3