FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
y` · 4 games
Earthshaker
XinQ · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
y` · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
363 picks · 758 bans
Void Spirit
339 picks · 452 bans
Mars
289 picks · 511 bans
Earth Spirit
264 picks · 222 bans
Death Prophet
252 picks · 391 bans
Rubick
239 picks · 140 bans
Keeper of the Light
226 picks · 477 bans
Wraith King
221 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:31
Invictus Gaming 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:46.
Game 2prediction missed8:26
Invictus Gaming 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 20:56.
Game 3prediction missed8:20
Invictus Gaming 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 62%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3