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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
74%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 16 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 16 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 14 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
60%

Spider Pigzs

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 15 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 14 games
29%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
62%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 11 games
36%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
363 picks · 755 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
337 picks · 451 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
289 picks · 511 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
263 picks · 222 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
250 picks · 390 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
238 picks · 139 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
225 picks · 476 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 671 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 48%
Hero pool strength61% Creepwave
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total69% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:4
Creepwave 60%Spider Pigzs 40%
The model gave 60% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 25:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCrystallis
57% · 30 games41% · 41 game
TimbersawMitch
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterTobi
46% · 55 games53% · 69 games
Wraith KingYuma
Wraith King
Enigma
EnigmaMiLAN
46% · 29 games45% · 16 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerAdzantick
46% · 25 games49% · 10 games
WindrangerFervian
Windranger
Tusk
TuskFishman
53% · 46 games56% · 49 games
Keeper of the LightLeBronDota
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed32:45
Creepwave 58%Spider Pigzs 42%
The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 46:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
40% · 57 games59% · 21 game
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTobi
45% · 46 games61% · 89 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAdzantick
54% · 103 games45% · 26 games
AlchemistMitch
Alchemist
Lion
LionMiLAN
52% · 33 games48% · 94 games
RubickFervian
Rubick
Tusk
TuskFishman
44% · 46 games50% · 55 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct31:5
Creepwave 60%Spider Pigzs 40%
The model gave 60% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 23:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallis
43% · 33 games47% · 37 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTobi
50% · 81 game60% · 44 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAdzantick
51% · 111 games49% · 74 games
BloodseekerMitch
Bloodseeker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMiLAN
44% · 76 games59% · 93 games
EarthshakerFervian
Earthshaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFishman
little data45% · 53 games
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 69%
Series resultCreepwave 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3