Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Brameloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 6 games
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 5 games
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 10 games
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
359 picks · 752 bans
Void Spirit
335 picks · 448 bans
Mars
288 picks · 506 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 221 bans
Death Prophet
247 picks · 390 bans
Rubick
237 picks · 138 bans
Keeper of the Light
224 picks · 472 bans
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 670 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:22
B8 Esports 30%Brame 70%
The model gave 70% on Brame — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckDendi
TinkerW1sh-
BloodseekerTA2000
Wraith KingFocus
EnchantressDuster
Death ProphetSkyLark
Lion[T]SA
AlchemistCTOMAHEH1
48% · 54 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct0:1
B8 Esports 33%Brame 67%
The model gave 67% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 51:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lion[T]SA
Death ProphetSkyLark
LeshracDendi
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
Elder TitanDuster
PugnaW1sh-
IoTA2000
JuggernautFocus
52% · 35 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 82%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2