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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
50%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 751 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
335 picks · 445 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
288 picks · 506 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 221 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
247 picks · 388 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
237 picks · 138 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
224 picks · 472 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 670 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 74%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Team Empire 19%PuckChamp 81%
The model gave 81% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 31:52.
Game 2prediction missed32:29
Team Empire 19%PuckChamp 81%
The model gave 81% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Empire in 45:00.
Game 3prediction missed20:27
Team Empire 19%PuckChamp 81%
The model gave 81% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Empire in 38:02.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 81%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3