Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTequilaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
Marssignature
ATF · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
Tequila
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
355 picks · 746 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 440 bans
Mars
285 picks · 503 bans
Earth Spirit
260 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
242 picks · 382 bans
Rubick
236 picks · 137 bans
Keeper of the Light
222 picks · 468 bans
Wraith King
219 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 36%
Hero pool strength60% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:18
Creepwave 77%Tequila 23%
The model gave 77% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 43:51.
Game 2prediction correct31:20
Creepwave 77%Tequila 23%
The model gave 77% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 34:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 77%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2