EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Uniqueloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 10 games
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 6 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
355 picks · 740 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 435 bans
Mars
284 picks · 502 bans
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
242 picks · 377 bans
Rubick
236 picks · 137 bans
Keeper of the Light
222 picks · 465 bans
Wraith King
218 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:16
Brame 72%Team Unique 28%
The model gave 72% on Brame — the game was taken by Team Unique in 42:50.
Game 2prediction correct36:12
Brame 72%Team Unique 28%
The model gave 72% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 34:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 72%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2