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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 9 games
56%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
57%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 7 games
29%

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Miposhka · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 739 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
331 picks · 433 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
284 picks · 501 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 219 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
242 picks · 374 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
236 picks · 136 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
222 picks · 462 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
218 picks · 312 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:25
Winstrike Team 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 41:20.
Game 2prediction missed25:9
Winstrike Team 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:10.
Game 3prediction missed28:30
Winstrike Team 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3