Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
shiro · 3 games
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
350 picks · 736 bans
Void Spirit
329 picks · 428 bans
Mars
282 picks · 497 bans
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
241 picks · 371 bans
Rubick
234 picks · 134 bans
Keeper of the Light
222 picks · 462 bans
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 669 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
Phoenix Gaming 36%CDEC Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 49:51.
Game 2prediction missed22:2
Phoenix Gaming 36%CDEC Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 27:43.
Game 3prediction correct32:25
Phoenix Gaming 36%CDEC Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 45:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 64%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3