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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
88%
Abaddon
Abaddon
LaNm · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
BoBoKa · 4 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Monet · 4 games
100%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Monet · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Xxs · 3 games
100%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 6 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
September · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Son GoKu · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
350 picks · 736 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
329 picks · 428 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
282 picks · 497 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 219 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
241 picks · 371 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
234 picks · 134 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
222 picks · 462 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 669 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:17
Team Aster 56%Sparking Arrow Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 25:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
55% · 19 games52% · 44 games
Void SpiritDstones
Void Spirit
Slark
SlarkMonet
little data41% · 15 games
Dark SeerSon GoKu
Dark Seer
Lycan
LycanXxs
45% · 15 games40% · 26 games
ClockwerkSeptember
Clockwerk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
57% · 35 games51% · 10 games
Winter WyvernXCJ
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
TuskLaNm
53% · 26 games
Game 2prediction missed8:24
Team Aster 57%Sparking Arrow Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMonet
59% · 9 games44% · 15 games
Outworld DestroyerDstones
Outworld Destroyer
Leshrac
LeshracWhite丶Album
43% · 14 gameslittle data
Centaur WarrunnerSon GoKu
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
62% · 25 games52% · 40 games
Shadow ShamanSeptember
Shadow Shaman
Warlock
WarlockLaNm
little data36% · 18 games
Elder TitanXCJ
Elder Titan
Oracle
OracleBoBoKa
49% · 25 games
Game 3prediction correct32:18
Team Aster 55%Sparking Arrow Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWhite丶Album
48% · 26 games47% · 76 games
PuckDstones
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingMonet
45% · 44 gameslittle data
Centaur WarrunnerSon GoKu
Centaur Warrunner
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerXxs
22% · 5 games66% · 30 games
Shadow ShamanSeptember
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionBoBoKa
48% · 31 gamelittle data
JakiroXCJ
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLaNm
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 62%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3