EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 9 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 8 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
KheZu · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 7 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
350 picks · 732 bans
Void Spirit
328 picks · 426 bans
Mars
280 picks · 497 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 217 bans
Death Prophet
241 picks · 367 bans
Rubick
233 picks · 131 bans
Keeper of the Light
220 picks · 461 bans
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 668 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 76%
Hero pool strength58% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:27
ViKin.gg 30%PuckChamp 70%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 40:34.
Game 2prediction missed6:23
ViKin.gg 30%PuckChamp 70%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 16:33.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 70%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2