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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
High Coast Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

High Coast Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
75%

Tundra Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
350 picks · 729 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
328 picks · 426 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
280 picks · 497 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 217 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
241 picks · 364 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
233 picks · 131 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
220 picks · 459 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 667 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:24
High Coast Esports 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:32.
Game 2prediction missed30:11
High Coast Esports 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 27:14.
Game 3prediction correct12:33
High Coast Esports 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3