Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 5 games
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
350 picks · 728 bans
Void Spirit
327 picks · 425 bans
Mars
278 picks · 497 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 217 bans
Death Prophet
241 picks · 362 bans
Rubick
233 picks · 131 bans
Keeper of the Light
220 picks · 459 bans
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 667 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
Elephant 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:55.
Game 2prediction correct21:8
Elephant 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 53%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2