FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team MagMaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
349 picks · 727 bans
Void Spirit
327 picks · 424 bans
Mars
277 picks · 495 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 217 bans
Death Prophet
241 picks · 360 bans
Rubick
233 picks · 130 bans
Keeper of the Light
220 picks · 459 bans
Nyx Assassin
216 picks · 667 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total84% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:30
Invictus Gaming 84%Team MagMa 16%
The model gave 84% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 33:12.
Game 2prediction missed14:25
Invictus Gaming 84%Team MagMa 16%
The model gave 84% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 29:09.
Game 3prediction missed24:21
Invictus Gaming 84%Team MagMa 16%
The model gave 84% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 35:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 84%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3