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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dota Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
dSa · 6 games
83%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
80%

Dota Team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 721 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
327 picks · 421 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
276 picks · 492 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
255 picks · 217 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
238 picks · 355 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
230 picks · 129 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
218 picks · 451 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
216 picks · 660 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Dota Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:41
VP.Prodigy 48%Dota Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Dota Team — the game was taken by Dota Team in 43:51.
Game 2prediction missed29:40
VP.Prodigy 48%Dota Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Dota Team — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 55:20.
Game 3prediction correct31:47
VP.Prodigy 48%Dota Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Dota Team — the game was taken by Dota Team in 58:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteDota Team · 52%
Series resultDota Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3