Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 7 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
BoBoKa · 4 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Monet · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 3 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
346 picks · 719 bans
Void Spirit
327 picks · 419 bans
Mars
276 picks · 487 bans
Earth Spirit
255 picks · 216 bans
Death Prophet
237 picks · 348 bans
Rubick
230 picks · 129 bans
Keeper of the Light
218 picks · 448 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 36%
Hero pool strength62% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Team Aster 81%Team MagMa 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 27:33.
Game 2prediction correct22:9
Team Aster 81%Team MagMa 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 25:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 81%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2