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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 6 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
September · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Son GoKu · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
September · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 3 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Puck
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 1 game
100%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Storm · 1 game
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Storm · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 716 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
326 picks · 417 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
275 picks · 483 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
254 picks · 216 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
234 picks · 347 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
229 picks · 128 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
218 picks · 448 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 656 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Sparking Arrow Gaming 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracDstones
67% · 5 games59% · 33 games
Death ProphetStorm
Death Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSon GoKu
50% · 4 games
Tusk
TuskSeptember
22% · 14 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionXCJ
50% · 10 games
Game 2prediction correct22:20
Sparking Arrow Gaming 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDstones
56% · 5 games41% · 9 games
WindrangerStorm
Windranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterSon GoKu
63% · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSeptember
little data
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionXCJ
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteSparking Arrow Gaming · 68%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2