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BTS Pro Series Season 5. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team DogChamploss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

simply TOOBASED

No games played over 6 months.

Team DogChamp

Puck
Puckoften banned
Bloody Nine · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 3 games
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
yarintheslayer · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
344 picks · 711 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
326 picks · 415 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
272 picks · 482 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
253 picks · 215 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
232 picks · 345 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
229 picks · 127 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 649 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 445 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:21
simply TOOBASED 65%Team DogChamp 35%
The model gave 65% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:38.
Game 2prediction missed37:19
simply TOOBASED 65%Team DogChamp 35%
The model gave 65% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 43:54.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 65%
Accuracy by game0 of 2