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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dota Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Miposhka · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
50%

Dota Team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
344 picks · 706 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
326 picks · 410 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
272 picks · 481 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
253 picks · 213 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
232 picks · 341 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
229 picks · 126 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 646 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 443 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Team Spirit 64%Dota Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:28.
Game 2prediction correct29:8
Team Spirit 64%Dota Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2