FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 4 games
Earthshaker
XinQ · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
y` · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
343 picks · 701 bans
Void Spirit
324 picks · 408 bans
Mars
272 picks · 478 bans
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
230 picks · 340 bans
Rubick
228 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 642 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:6
Team MagMa 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:38.
Game 2prediction correct33:25
Team MagMa 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 63%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2