EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 9 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
KheZu · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Aramis · 7 games
VP.Prodigy
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
Grimstroke
dSa · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
343 picks · 696 bans
Void Spirit
324 picks · 408 bans
Mars
272 picks · 478 bans
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
229 picks · 338 bans
Rubick
228 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 642 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 441 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 27%
Hero pool strength54% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
ViKin.gg 74%VP.Prodigy 26%
The model gave 74% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 26:20.
Game 2prediction correct15:11
ViKin.gg 64%VP.Prodigy 36%
The model gave 64% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingShad
LycanLarl
Ember SpiritBOOM
BloodseekerNoticed
AlchemistKheZu
OracledSa
LionAramis
Tuskforcemajor
Death ProphetSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 74%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2