FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
343 picks · 694 bans
Void Spirit
323 picks · 407 bans
Mars
272 picks · 476 bans
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
228 picks · 338 bans
Rubick
228 picks · 124 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 641 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 441 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
Elephant 41%CDEC Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 45:20.
Game 2prediction correct32:33
Elephant 41%CDEC Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 44:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 59%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2