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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 10 games
30%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 688 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
322 picks · 402 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 476 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 210 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
226 picks · 333 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
226 picks · 124 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 641 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 435 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:7
HellRaisers 50%Brame 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Brame in 21:02.
Game 2prediction correct21:15
HellRaisers 50%Brame 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 26:33.
Game 3prediction missed12:32
HellRaisers 50%Brame 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Brame in 47:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 50%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3