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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hellbear Smasherswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SkyLark · 9 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 6 games
50%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
82%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 9 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 686 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 398 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 472 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
250 picks · 210 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
224 picks · 331 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
224 picks · 123 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
214 picks · 638 bans
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
213 picks · 435 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 75%
Hero pool strength65% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:35
Brame 40%Hellbear Smashers 60%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 57:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverFocus
44% · 28 games52% · 47 games
JuggernautAce
Juggernaut
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSkyLark
51% · 28 games49% · 87 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
52% · 67 games46% · 49 games
TidehunterMISERY
Tidehunter
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinCTOMAHEH1
54% · 97 games53% · 75 games
Keeper of the LightGilgir
Keeper of the Light
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
43% · 99 games56% · 61 game
OracletOfu
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 65%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1