Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 12 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
338 picks · 685 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 398 bans
Mars
268 picks · 471 bans
Earth Spirit
249 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
222 picks · 331 bans
Rubick
222 picks · 123 bans
Nyx Assassin
213 picks · 638 bans
Keeper of the Light
212 picks · 434 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 77%
Hero pool strength66% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total60% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
PuckChamp 40%Hellbear Smashers 60%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 21:51.
Game 2prediction correct21:11
PuckChamp 40%Hellbear Smashers 60%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 30:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 60%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2