FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
BoBoKa · 4 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Monet · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Monet · 3 games
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
338 picks · 683 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 396 bans
Mars
268 picks · 470 bans
Earth Spirit
249 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
222 picks · 330 bans
Rubick
222 picks · 122 bans
Nyx Assassin
213 picks · 636 bans
Keeper of the Light
212 picks · 434 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 77%
Hero pool strength62% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:14
Team Aster 50%CDEC Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:26.
Game 2prediction missed30:8
Team Aster 50%CDEC Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 25:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 50%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2