bumble bEE's vs Eternity — prediction DPC2S—СА1Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

bumble bEE'swin 1:0

series probability

38%62%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Eternityloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

bumble bEE's

Nyx Assassinoften banned

Sneyking · 4 games

50%

Witch Doctor

ppd · 4 games

50%

Batrideroften banned

Moo · 3 games

33%

Juggernautoften banned

Fear · 3 games

Monkey Kingoften banned

dnm · 3 games

67%

Tidehunteroften banned

Moo · 3 games

67%

Void Spiritoften banned

dnm · 3 games

Beastmasteroften banned

Moo · 2 games

Eternity

Mirana

FrancisLee · 4 games

75%

Puckoften banned

Ryoya · 4 games

Void Spiritoften banned

Jubei · 4 games

100%

Witch Doctor

Jubei · 4 games

50%

Earthshaker

FrancisLee · 3 games

Juggernautoften banned

YamSun · 3 games

33%

Outworld Destroyeroften banned

Ryoya · 3 games

67%

Phoenixoften banned

FrancisLee · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

337 picks · 681 bans

51%

Void Spirit

321 picks · 394 bans

56%

Mars

267 picks · 469 bans

50%

Earth Spirit

249 picks · 210 bans

50%

Death Prophet

222 picks · 326 bans

56%

Rubick

220 picks · 122 bans

50%

Nyx Assassin

213 picks · 636 bans

60%

Keeper of the Light

212 picks · 432 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%

Hero pool strength52% Eternity

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total62% Eternity

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed30:7

bumble bEE's 46%Eternity 54%

The model gave 54% on Eternity — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 37:07.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo