Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
A-Teamloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Eternitywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
A-Team
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Rikioften banned
Rises · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Eternity
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 4 games
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 3 games
Mirana
FrancisLee · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
FrancisLee · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
337 picks · 680 bans
Void Spirit
320 picks · 394 bans
Mars
267 picks · 469 bans
Earth Spirit
249 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
221 picks · 326 bans
Rubick
220 picks · 121 bans
Nyx Assassin
213 picks · 636 bans
Keeper of the Light
212 picks · 432 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Eternity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
A-Team 50%Eternity 50%
The model gave 50% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinRises
Death ProphetRyoya
TidehunterTheBloodySky
JuggernautYamSun
55% · 12 games
MiranaFrancisLee
43% · 35 games
Void SpiritJubei
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 53%
Series resultEternity 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1