Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Undyingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 4 games
Puckoften banned
4dr · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Thiolicor · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Kingrd · 3 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
336 picks · 679 bans
Void Spirit
319 picks · 393 bans
Mars
267 picks · 468 bans
Earth Spirit
246 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
219 picks · 325 bans
Rubick
219 picks · 120 bans
Keeper of the Light
212 picks · 429 bans
Nyx Assassin
212 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 77%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:24
Evil Geniuses 43%Team Undying 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 31:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 57%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1