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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yatoro · 5 games
80%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Collapse · 4 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 4 games
75%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
334 picks · 676 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
317 picks · 391 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
266 picks · 465 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
246 picks · 208 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
217 picks · 119 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
216 picks · 323 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
212 picks · 635 bans
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
211 picks · 425 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:27
Team Spirit 49%AS Monaco Gambit 51%
The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 57:02.
Game 2prediction missed19:5
Team Spirit 49%AS Monaco Gambit 51%
The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:40.
Game 3prediction correct8:25
Team Spirit 49%AS Monaco Gambit 51%
The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 29:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 51%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3