OG vs Tundra Esports — prediction DPC2S—Е1Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO1

result vs prediction

OGwin 1:0

series probability

43%57%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Tundra Esportsloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Nyx Assassinoften banned

Saksa · 6 games

50%

Alchemistoften banned

Ceb · 5 games

40%

Earth Spirit

Saksa · 5 games

80%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Ceb · 5 games

40%

Rubick

Saksa · 5 games

20%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Topson · 4 games

50%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

Saksa · 4 games

25%

Monkey Kingoften banned

MidOne · 4 games

25%

Tundra Esports

Ursaoften banned

Skiter · 4 games

50%

Wraith Kingoften banned

Skiter · 4 games

75%

Dark Seeroften banned

33 · 3 games

33%

Grimstroke

Fata · 3 games

100%

Puckoften banned

Fata · 3 games

Void Spiritoften banned

Nine · 3 games

67%

Abaddon

33 · 2 games

50%

Brewmaster

33 · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

334 picks · 675 bans

51%

Void Spirit

317 picks · 389 bans

56%

Mars

265 picks · 465 bans

50%

Earth Spirit

246 picks · 206 bans

50%

Rubick

217 picks · 119 bans

51%

Death Prophet

215 picks · 323 bans

56%

Nyx Assassin

212 picks · 634 bans

60%

Phoenix

211 picks · 243 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%

Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports

Head-to-head2 – 0

Model total57% Tundra Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed34:12

OG 47%Tundra Esports 53%

The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 29:05.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Monkey KingMidOne

53% · 35 gameslittle data

Alchemist33