?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
33 · 2 games
50%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 670 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
315 picks · 385 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 465 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
244 picks · 204 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
216 picks · 118 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
213 picks · 319 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
212 picks · 631 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 243 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:16
Tundra Esports 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
52% · 55 games61% · 27 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Mars
MarsNine
53% · 78 gameslittle data
Visageqojqva
Visage
Death Prophet
Death Prophet33
47% · 69 games47% · 47 games
EnigmaTaiga
Enigma
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFata
48% · 52 games55% · 112 games
Void SpiritBoxi
Void Spirit
42% · 68 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 57%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1