Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 3 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Ori · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Team Aster
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 6 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 6 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
BoBoKa · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Monet · 3 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Monet · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
330 picks · 667 bans
Void Spirit
313 picks · 381 bans
Mars
263 picks · 461 bans
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 203 bans
Rubick
216 picks · 117 bans
Death Prophet
212 picks · 318 bans
Nyx Assassin
210 picks · 628 bans
Phoenix
210 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 80%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:15
Vici Gaming 42%Team Aster 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusapoyoyo
Arc WardenMonet
Void SpiritOri
PuckWhite丶Album
MarsELeVeN
WeaverXxs
PhoenixDy
Monkey KingBoBoKa
Shadow ShamanPyw
Treant ProtectorLaNm
Game 2prediction missed24:18
Vici Gaming 40%Team Aster 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
Death ProphetWhite丶Album
Shadow FiendOri
JuggernautMonet
TidehunterELeVeN
EnigmaXxs
Shadow ShamanPyw
PuckBoBoKa
Witch DoctorDy
Nyx AssassinLaNm
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 64%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2