Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 7 games
Pucksignature
miCKe · 6 games
Tusk
Taiga · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
qojqva · 3 games
OG
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 5 games
Rubick
Saksa · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Topson · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
330 picks · 667 bans
Void Spirit
313 picks · 381 bans
Mars
263 picks · 461 bans
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 203 bans
Rubick
216 picks · 117 bans
Death Prophet
212 picks · 318 bans
Nyx Assassin
210 picks · 628 bans
Phoenix
210 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
Team Liquid 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskarqojqva
WeaverMidOne
Void SpiritmiCKe
Troll WarlordTopson
BloodseekerBoxi
EarthshakerCeb
Earth SpiritTaiga
Nyx AssassinSaksa
OracleiNSaNiA
Ion0tail
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1