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Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spirit Academywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 9 games
78%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 9 games
89%
Windranger
Windranger
chempik · 9 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
WoE · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
40%

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 14 games
29%
Largo
Largooften banned
kae · 12 games
42%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 10 games
30%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 10 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
86 · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 354 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 234 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 634 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 347 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
316 picks · 230 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 397 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
293 picks · 283 bans
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
287 picks · 310 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:40
Level UP 73%Team Spirit Academy 27%
The model gave 73% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 1:03:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreWoE
63% · 4 games51% · 220 games
Largo86
Largo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
59% · 113 games35% · 195 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Underlord
UnderlordBb3px
53% · 75 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorHtrd
60% · 75 games
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
55% · 148 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 85%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1