FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
Tusk
Mira · 17 games
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 46 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 40 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 30 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 29 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 29 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
528 picks · 862 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 377 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 636 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 588 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 798 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 557 bans
Gyrocopter
342 picks · 575 bans
Mars
341 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:13
Aurora Gaming 68%Rune Eaters 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Ursayowaai
Ember SpiritLorenof
TinyEthereal
TimbersawWs
SlardarAnkou
JakiroKaori
Warlockmonodrama
Dark WillowMira
Muertaani-san
Game 2prediction correct34:11
Aurora Gaming 68%Rune Eaters 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterTA2000
PuckEthereal
Ember SpiritLorenof
Gyrocopteryowaai
Primal BeastWs
KunkkaAnkou
JakiroKaori
Warlockmonodrama
LargoMira
Tinyani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 81%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2