Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Byzantine Raidersloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Electronic Boyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Byzantine Raiders
No games played over 6 months.
Electronic Boys
Witch Doctor
albinozebra · 7 games
Jakiro
albinozebra · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Speeed · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Giant · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
albinozebra · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
albinozebra · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
329 picks · 665 bans
Void Spirit
311 picks · 380 bans
Mars
261 picks · 460 bans
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 202 bans
Rubick
216 picks · 115 bans
Death Prophet
212 picks · 315 bans
Nyx Assassin
210 picks · 628 bans
Phoenix
210 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 25%
Hero pool strength54% Byzantine Raiders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Byzantine Raiders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:37
Byzantine Raiders 49%Electronic Boys 51%
The model gave 51% on Electronic Boys — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 48:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night StalkerEternaLEnVy
JuggernautSpeeed
little data
Storm Spiritred2
little data
Nature's ProphetGiant
little data
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
Game 2prediction missed19:40
Byzantine Raiders 52%Electronic Boys 48%
The model gave 52% on Byzantine Raiders — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistEternaLEnVy
Phantom AssassinSpeeed
70% · 6 games
Void Spiritred2
36% · 10 games
MarsGiant
little data
Ancient Apparitionalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteByzantine Raiders · 50%
Series resultElectronic Boys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2