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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Copy · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Copy · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
0%

Spider Pigzs

Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 15 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 15 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 13 games
69%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 12 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 665 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
311 picks · 380 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
261 picks · 457 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 202 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
216 picks · 114 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
210 picks · 314 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
210 picks · 627 bans
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
210 picks · 241 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:28
IVY 43%Spider Pigzs 57%
The model gave 57% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 21:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCopy
51% · 13 games60% · 16 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Puck
PuckTheBloodySky
46% · 115 games55% · 39 games
Wraith KingYuma
Wraith King
59% · 13 games
Nature's ProphetMitch
Nature's Prophet
56% · 42 games
Death ProphetLeBronDota
Death Prophet
40% · 18 games
ClockwerkFervian
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed48:14
IVY 45%Spider Pigzs 55%
The model gave 55% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by IVY in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracCopy
61% · 31 gamelittle data
LunaYuma
Luna
Monkey King
Monkey KingTheBloodySky
50% · 67 games52% · 34 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
55% · 16 games
ViperMitch
Viper
46% · 27 games
GrimstrokeFervian
Grimstroke
34% · 21 game
TuskLeBronDota
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed40:10
IVY 45%Spider Pigzs 55%
The model gave 55% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by IVY in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanCopy
59% · 22 games29% · 13 games
MedusaYuma
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingTheBloodySky
60% · 38 games42% · 28 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
little data
Dark SeerMitch
Dark Seer
40% · 11 games
ClockwerkFervian
Clockwerk
56% · 8 games
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 63%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3