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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
生死 · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 2 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 1 game
0%

Phoenix Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 4 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xwy · 3 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
zzq · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 660 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
307 picks · 377 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 453 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 200 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
215 picks · 112 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
209 picks · 625 bans
61%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
205 picks · 309 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
205 picks · 415 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Aster.Aries 43%Phoenix Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenUlu
40% · 13 games67% · 26 games
Troll Warlordshiro
Troll Warlord
Mars
Mars生死
34% · 118 games53% · 63 games
Void SpiritXwy
Void Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerphoenix
38% · 52 games61% · 39 games
Death ProphetMolasses
Death Prophet
Abaddon
AbaddonFantasy
55% · 19 games60% · 40 games
Phoenixzzq
Phoenix
71% · 34 games
EarthshakerpLAnet
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction missed37:12
Aster.Aries 45%Phoenix Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaphoenix
46% · 28 games52% · 24 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingUlu
57% · 86 games53% · 17 games
LeshracXwy
Leshrac
Weaver
Weaver生死
56% · 23 games51% · 39 games
RubickpLAnet
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFantasy
40% · 73 games50% · 74 games
Void SpiritMolasses
Void Spirit
51% · 56 games
Phoenixzzq
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed36:33
Aster.Aries 47%Phoenix Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 45:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaphoenix
50% · 29 games50% · 35 games
Troll Warlordshiro
Troll Warlord
Razor
RazorUlu
78% · 5 games45% · 29 games
InvokerXwy
Invoker
Mars
Mars生死
57% · 62 games45% · 47 games
TidehunterMolasses
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
60% · 67 games46% · 12 games
LionpLAnet
Lion
29% · 40 games
Grimstrokezzq
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 58%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3